Matches with 6 or more cards shown to players (a second yellow counts as a yellow and a red). The referee matters here as much as the teams, and we use the appointed referee once it is announced.
10 matches· likeliest first · Season (home · away) = how often it happened in each team's games this season · prices appear in the last 72 hours before kickoff
Malaga
Espanyol45%Fair 2.20Season 3/7·4/7
Levante
Sevilla40%Fair 2.47Season 1/6·4/7
Racing Santander
CF Valencia36%Fair 2.80Season 4/7·0/7
Elche
Celta Vigo36%Fair 2.81Season 3/7·2/7
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao34%Fair 2.94Season 3/7·2/6
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna33%Fair 3.06Season 4/7·1/7
Alavés
Atlético Madrid30%Fair 3.34Season 3/7·2/7
Betis
Osasuna27%Fair 3.75Season 3/7·1/7
Barcelona
Getafe18%Fair 5.43Season 0/7·5/7
Real Madrid
CF Villarreal17%Fair 5.74Season 5/7·4/7How to read it: 45% means that in 100 matches like this one, it happens about 45 times. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. How we predict →
18+· Statistical analysis. We don't accept bets. Probabilities describe how often an outcome happens in matches like this one; they are not a promise about any single match. How we predict · Responsible gambling
