Matches with 4 or more cards shown to players (a second yellow counts as a yellow and a red). The referee matters here as much as the teams, and we use the appointed referee once it is announced.
10 matches· likeliest first · Season (home · away) = how often it happened in each team's games this season · prices appear in the last 72 hours before kickoff
Malaga
Espanyol77%Fair 1.29Season 5/7·6/7
Levante
Sevilla74%Fair 1.36Season 1/6·5/7
Racing Santander
CF Valencia70%Fair 1.44Season 6/7·4/7
Elche
Celta Vigo69%Fair 1.44Season 5/7·4/7
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao68%Fair 1.47Season 4/7·2/6
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna67%Fair 1.50Season 6/7·5/7
Alavés
Atlético Madrid64%Fair 1.56Season 4/7·4/7
Betis
Osasuna61%Fair 1.64Season 3/7·3/7
Barcelona
Getafe51%Fair 1.97Season 2/7·7/7
Real Madrid
CF Villarreal49%Fair 2.02Season 5/7·5/7How to read it: 77% means that in 100 matches like this one, it happens about 77 times. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. How we predict →
18+· Statistical analysis. We don't accept bets. Probabilities describe how often an outcome happens in matches like this one; they are not a promise about any single match. How we predict · Responsible gambling
