Matches with 5 or more cards shown to players (a second yellow counts as a yellow and a red). The referee matters here as much as the teams, and we use the appointed referee once it is announced.
10 matches· likeliest first · Season (home · away) = how often it happened in each team's games this season · prices appear in the last 72 hours before kickoff
Malaga
Espanyol62%Fair 1.62Season 4/7·6/7
Levante
Sevilla57%Fair 1.75Season 1/6·4/7
Racing Santander
CF Valencia52%Fair 1.91Season 5/7·3/7
Elche
Celta Vigo52%Fair 1.92Season 4/7·4/7
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao50%Fair 1.98Season 4/7·2/6
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna49%Fair 2.04Season 6/7·1/7
Alavés
Atlético Madrid46%Fair 2.17Season 4/7·3/7
Betis
Osasuna42%Fair 2.36Season 3/7·3/7
Barcelona
Getafe32%Fair 3.09Season 1/7·5/7
Real Madrid
CF Villarreal31%Fair 3.22Season 5/7·4/7How to read it: 62% means that in 100 matches like this one, it happens about 62 times. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. How we predict →
18+· Statistical analysis. We don't accept bets. Probabilities describe how often an outcome happens in matches like this one; they are not a promise about any single match. How we predict · Responsible gambling
