Matches with 3 or more cards shown to players (a second yellow counts as a yellow and a red). The referee matters here as much as the teams, and we use the appointed referee once it is announced.
10 matches· likeliest first · Season (home · away) = how often it happened in each team's games this season · prices appear in the last 72 hours before kickoff
Malaga
Espanyol89%Fair 1.12Season 5/7·7/7
Levante
Sevilla87%Fair 1.15Season 3/6·6/7
Racing Santander
CF Valencia85%Fair 1.18Season 7/7·7/7
Elche
Celta Vigo84%Fair 1.18Season 6/7·5/7
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao84%Fair 1.20Season 5/7·4/6
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna83%Fair 1.21Season 7/7·6/7
Alavés
Atlético Madrid81%Fair 1.23Season 6/7·6/7
Betis
Osasuna79%Fair 1.27Season 4/7·6/7
Barcelona
Getafe71%Fair 1.41Season 3/7·7/7
Real Madrid
CF Villarreal70%Fair 1.43Season 5/7·5/7How to read it: 89% means that in 100 matches like this one, it happens about 89 times. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. How we predict →
18+· Statistical analysis. We don't accept bets. Probabilities describe how often an outcome happens in matches like this one; they are not a promise about any single match. How we predict · Responsible gambling
