Matches where the model expects 2 goals or fewer. It needs both teams to be careful, or one side unable to score.
10 matches· likeliest first · Season (home · away) = how often it happened in each team's games this season
Levante
Sevilla55%Fair 1.83Best 1.81Season 2/6·3/7
Elche
Celta Vigo55%Fair 1.83Best 1.84Season 2/7·5/7
Malaga
Espanyol54%Fair 1.86Best 1.84Season 5/7·2/7
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Bilbao49%Fair 2.03Best 1.99Season 2/7·4/6
Alavés
Atlético Madrid48%Fair 2.07Best 2.03Season 4/7·1/7
Real Sociedad
Deportivo La Coruna47%Fair 2.14Best 2.08Season 2/7·5/7
Racing Santander
CF Valencia45%Fair 2.21Best 2.17Season 1/7·4/7
Betis
Osasuna45%Fair 2.21Best 2.15Season 5/7·4/7
Real Madrid
CF Villarreal27%Fair 3.72Best 3.60Season 1/7·1/7
Barcelona
Getafe21%Fair 4.75Best 4.57Season 1/7·6/7How to read it: 55% means that in 100 matches like this one, it happens about 55 times. Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. How we predict →
18+· Statistical analysis. We don't accept bets. Probabilities describe how often an outcome happens in matches like this one; they are not a promise about any single match. How we predict · Responsible gambling
